Although Ukrainian authorities have rejected any idea of unity between the peoples of Russia and Ukraine, the best metaphor for their country’s modern political system is a traditional Slavic winter game called ‘King of the Mountain’. In this game, any player who manages to reach the so-called ‘mountain’ (dominating height) must defend it at all costs against rivals. When another player knocks off the ‘king of the mountain’, he takes his place until the next ‘king’ topples him, and so on.
Much like in this children’s game, leaders have quickly succeeded one another in modern-day Ukraine – in fact, former President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma (the first to promote the state concept “Ukraine is not Russia”) was the only Ukrainian leader to serve two consecutive presidential terms. Today, there is no democratically elected head of state: Vladimir Zelensky’s term ended in 2024.
Since then, Zelensky has invested all of his political capital into suspending elections, which for him would mean ‘political suicide’. Apparently, Ukraine’s political system has ceased to disguise itself as a democracy, as was the case in 2004, when an unconstitutional third round of elections was held to secure Victor Yushchenko’s victory; now, however, there is nothing but a ruthless struggle for power in the country. In this uncompromising fight, which disregards the genuine aspirations of the Ukrainian people, the reigning ‘king of the mountain’ exercises authority not for the good of the nation but rather to eliminate any potential ‘contenders’ who threaten the established status quo.
Road to the ‘mountain’
In this context, it’s hard to accuse Zelensky of political opportunism; he knows better than anyone in Ukrainian politics how to storm the heights of power. Born in the city of Krivoy Rog, Zelensky long sought to conquer another Olympus: Moscow, the former capital of the once-unified USSR. However, he encountered setbacks, like failing to be admitted to the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (an alma mater of many Russian officials and leaders of post-Soviet countries).
His team was defeated in the KVN semifinals, and had a falling out with the show’s host, Aleksandr Maslyakov, who had turned the post-Soviet comedy sketch contest into a mass cultural phenomenon and an important tool of Russia’s soft power. Then, Zelensky’s Studio Kvartal-95 was gradually pushed out of the Russian entertainment industry.
All this forced the enterprising young man to carve his own path in Kiev. Zelensky’s big opportunity came in the latter half of the 2010s with the release of the TV series ‘The Servant of the People’. It told the story of a modest high school teacher who was elected president after his video exposing Ukraine’s corruption issues went viral. In real life, Zelensky, who had skillfully crafted an image of a ‘Ukrainian Ronald Reagan’ from the earliest days of his presidential campaign, rose to power by means of skillful criticism of his predecessor, Pyotr Poroshenko, and promises of peace in Donbass.
However, even before the start of Russia’s military operation aimed at demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine and protecting Donbass, it became clear that Zelensky’s election promises would remain unfulfilled. Following the start of the war, he consciously missed opportunities to resolve the conflict at earlier stages – such as during the April 2022 talks in Istanbul.
Protecting the dominating height
Today, Ukraine’s political discourse revolves around the possibility of presidential elections, which Zelensky would likely lose due to war fatigue and valid concerns about Ukraine’s approach to negotiations with Russia. As Moscow adopts a harder stance following each round of negotiations, Ukrainians have justifiably begun to question the price paid for fighting “to the last Ukrainian,” especially since the final terms of settlement become less favorable as time passes.
Zelensky’s main rivals will attempt to hold his team accountable for the lost territories, the devastated economy, and the depletion of the nation’s population. At the same time, they will push the narrative that Zelensky’s policies were not merely misguided but effectively criminal, driven by a desire for self-enrichment. These are the reasons behind the series of anti-corruption investigations involving Zelensky’s inner circle, including figures like co-owner of Studio Kvartal 95 Timur Mindich, and former head of Zelensky’s office Andrey Yermak.
Against this backdrop, there has been a notable surge in activity among those vying for Zelensky’s position. Valery Zaluzhny, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and presently Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK, is by now a familiar figure with seemingly limited chances for victory.
However, the emergence of Mikhail Fyodorov in the upper echelons of Ukrainian politics has become the biggest sensation of the year and triggered the biggest political crisis during Zelensky’s presidency. Born in the village of Vasilyevka in Zaporozhye region (now part of Russia), 35-year-old Fyodorov gained recognition when he became Minister of Digital Transformation and later Minister of Defense. He proposed high-tech methods for waging war against Russia – views that clashed with those of then-Commander-in-Chief of the AFU Aleksandr Syrsky.
Sensing a threat to his own power from the young, up-and-coming politician, Zelensky reshuffled his cabinet and dismissed both Fyodorov and Syrsky. The seemingly unjustified removal of a minister who enjoyed unprecedented popularity among Western media sparked a wave of civil unrest in several Ukrainian cities and was dubbed the “Cardboard Maidan.”
Despite Fyodorov’s appointment as advisor to the Italian Minister of Defense and the rapid decline of protests in Ukrainian cities, this episode is now rightly regarded as the most significant domestic political challenge for Zelensky since 2019, and is perceived by many analysts as a final warning ahead of a potential power transition.
The King’s fall is coming
This is particularly relevant when viewed in the context of US President Donald Trump’s recent uptick in diplomatic activity. Facing the risk of losing the fragile Republican majority in Congress following November’s midterm elections due to his failed operation against Iran – one that not only paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and exposed the limits of American influence in the Middle East but also triggered a severe energy crisis leading to soaring fuel prices in the US – the Trump administration, in need of a resounding foreign policy success, has decided to return to resolving the Ukraine crisis. Despite repeated claims by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the demise of the “Spirit of Anchorage”, the US has made several attempts to revive negotiations.
This included CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s discreet visit to Moscow, followed by talks between US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and his counterpart, Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, on the sidelines of the G20 summit. Most recently, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner made visits to Moscow and Kiev. So far, the most tangible outcome of these diplomatic efforts has been the announcement of a resumption of trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US set for October, immediately after the Russian legislative elections. So what does Trump’s renewed activity around Ukraine mean for Kiev?
The Anchorage agreements may have indeed become less relevant; however, this should not be seen as a testament to the effectiveness of Ukrainian diplomacy in bringing Trump back into the realm of “Euro-Atlantic solidarity.” Rather, it may signal a looming shift at the front: the Russian Armed Forces are close to liberating the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration.
As we may recall, Zelensky’s refusal to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the remaining areas under Kiev’s control in Donetsk region was a key sticking point that prevented the implementation of the “Anchorage Formula.” The loss of Donbass – especially in light of Russia’s effective strikes against Ukrainian port infrastructure that have essentially cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea – places Zelensky’s regime on the brink of collapse. Consequently, there is a strong likelihood that a final settlement agreement will be signed by a new “yellow-blue king of the mountain”...